Bitcoin absorbs initial pre-Fed sell-off, leaving $70K as a critical test for Warsh’s Fed decision

A Senate Vote and a Treasury Spike Walk Into the Same Week

Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low below $75,000 on September 15, pulled down by two forces hitting at the same time: a Senate vote that killed the CLARITY Act and a 10-year Treasury yield that reached 5.041%, its highest reading since 2007. The CLARITY Act failed 49-50, short of the 60-vote cloture threshold required to advance, and the market had already begun pricing in that outcome before the gavel fell. Polymarket showed passage odds sliding from 31% to 19% in the hours before the vote, dragging Bitcoin below $77,000 during that repricing window.

By the time the final result posted, most of the damage was already done. What the vote confirmed was a removal of near-term regulatory upside – and that confirmation, layered on top of 5% Treasury yields and Brent crude trading above $105, sent Bitcoin through the $76,300-$76,600 support area it had been holding. Coinbase fell roughly 10% on the session. Circle lost more than 11%. The steeper drops concentrated in US crypto businesses with direct exposure to stalled federal legislation.

What the Chart Looks Like Walking Into the FOMC

Bitcoin now arrives at the September 16 FOMC meeting having already surrendered that $76,300-$76,600 zone, which previously acted as a floor. From $75,900 – the reference level as the market entered Fed day – the next significant structural marker sits at $70,000, where CryptoQuant places Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average. Getting there from $75,900 would require an additional decline of about 7.8%.

Below $70,000, the picture changes character rather than just degree. CryptoQuant data shows long-term holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC in the $62,000-$65,000 zone during 2024, making it a layer of market structure with real cost-basis weight behind it. A drop to $65,000 from $75,900 would represent a 14.4% move. A decline to $62,000 would represent an 18.3% move and would put the entire August rebound under meaningful pressure.

On the upside, the first meaningful target is a reclaim of $76,000 – roughly flat from the $75,900 reference – which would stabilize the support area that broke on September 15. Beyond that, CryptoQuant identifies $77,100-$80,200 as a supply zone where long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC across a 30-day period this year. That volume of historical selling makes the range difficult to clear on any bounce, regardless of the near-term catalyst.

A move to $72,000 would extend September 15’s decline by 5.1% but leave Bitcoin above the 200-day moving average – painful in terms of momentum, but not structurally broken. The distance between $72,000 and $70,000 is where the bull and bear cases diverge most sharply. Staying above the moving average preserves the shape of the August recovery. Breaking below it does not.

The Path Where $70,000 Holds

A Reuters poll found 85% of economists expecting a 25-basis-point rate increase to 3.75%-4.00% at the September 16 meeting. That level of consensus shifts attention away from the decision itself and toward Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s language around the path forward and the new Summary of Economic Projections. If the Fed signals restraint beyond September, Bitcoin has room to stabilize somewhere between $72,000 and $76,000 – absorbing the week’s political and macro damage without breaking its deeper structure.

That outcome would mean September 15 was a severe correction rather than a structural breakdown. The August rebound’s foundation would still sit below the market, and the $70,000 moving average would remain untested. Much of the regulatory disappointment and macro repricing that drove the CLARITY sell-off is already embedded in price. A neutral Fed message does not reverse those losses, but it stops adding to them.

The Path Where It Doesn’t

The bear case opens if Warsh and the Fed’s projections point toward a more aggressive rate path than current market pricing reflects. Morgan Stanley is already forecasting another quarter-point increase in December, and more economists have moved toward expecting at least one additional hike beyond September. If the projections confirm that direction, financial conditions tighten further for risk assets – and Bitcoin, already sitting below broken support with a political setback fresh in memory, faces real pressure on the $70,000 moving average.

Holding $70,000 matters not just as a technical level but because of what breaking it would signal about the August rebound. The price action from August through mid-September had given the market a working assumption that a floor was forming. That assumption was already stressed by the CLARITY vote. A Fed-driven break below $70,000 would put it to a harder test than anything the summer’s rally survived.

The September 15 session made clear that crypto-specific regulatory risk and macro rate risk are not pricing in isolation from each other – Coinbase’s 10% drop and Circle’s 11%-plus loss reflected how directly US-focused businesses absorb both at once. Bitcoin at $75,900 heading into the FOMC is carrying both on its back. Whether $70,000 holds depends on whether Warsh adds a third.