Hyperliquid Falls Below 200-Day Average Despite Listings and Buybacks

HYPE slipped under its 200-day moving average this week, trading at $69.56 against a line sitting at $69.70. The gap is tiny, but the line matters. It is the same level the token defended in April before a rally that ran from May into the autumn.

The slide came despite a string of positive headlines. Binance reopened HYPE withdrawals on Nov 8, Upbit and Bithumb listed the token two days later, and the protocol keeps funneling its revenue into buybacks. None of it stopped the token from losing ground, and the next few sessions will show whether the high-$60s support band holds.

Good News, Falling Price

The daily chart turned bearish over the past two weeks. HYPE set a lower high on Oct 30 after a spike tied to the ICE futures announcement faded, then printed its first lower low since the August breakout. That sequence is the textbook sign of a trend changing hands, and the new listings did nothing to interrupt it.

Supply hit the market at a bad moment. On-chain data shows two large holders sold about $109M of HYPE on Oct 31, and that selling weighed on price in the days that followed. The exchange news arrived after the damage had started, which blunted its effect. South Korean listings can bring fresh retail flow, but so far that flow has not been enough to absorb what whales unloaded.

The business behind the token looks healthy. DefiLlama data shows $68.68M in revenue over the past 30 days, all of it routed to holders through buybacks. That pace works out to roughly $825M a year, and about 19% of it comes from yield on USDC reserves. Analyst Jussy pointed to that strength, but the buybacks have only slowed the selling, not reversed it. Sentiment is sour, with the Fear & Greed Index at 20. HYPE sits about 26% below its Sept 23 record of $97.99, though it still outperforms Bitcoin this year, since BTC is down about 15% year to d ate.

The Line That Started April’s Rally

A 200-day moving average tracks the mean closing price over roughly the past ten months, so slipping beneath it means the long-term floor is being tested from underneath. The 50-day average sits much higher, near $79.86, and price trades well below it. The short-term trend points clearly down, and that line now works as a ceiling for any bounce.

The losses have built steadily rather than in one panic flush. HYPE fell about 3% in a day, about 11% in a week and about 14% over the month. It also lost the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $75, a level that had held twice since September. Buyers failed to defend it a third time, and broken support often turns into resistance. Price tested the 200-day line in April, held, and rallied from May onward. A repeat needs buyers to show up here, while a clean break hands sellers the next leg.

Momentum Sinks Toward Oversold

The Relative Strength Index, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, reads 32 on the daily chart. That is its lowest level since August and just above the oversold line at 30, which HYPE has not yet crossed. Oversold readings can precede a bounce, but they can also persist while a downtrend runs.

Other indicators offer little relief. The MACD sits below its signal line, meaning momentum still points down, and trend gauges show sellers leading a newly forming trend. Trading volume has shrunk steadily since its April and June peaks. That pattern suggests buyers are drifting away while holders sell slowly, and a lasting bounce would need fresh demand to return in size.

Where Buyers Must Step In Before $61

The support zone stacks three levels in a tight band. The lower edge of HYPE’s ascending channel runs near $70. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement sits at about $68.08, and the nearest chart support comes in around $67. Buyers already reacted once at $69.91, which shows some demand exists at the top of the band.

The stacking cuts both ways. Three levels packed within roughly three dollars give buyers several chances to defend, but they also mean a failure would not leave much cushion. If the band gives way, the chart opens toward $61, near the summer lows. Traders will be watching for that level if sellers keep pressing.

For a recovery, HYPE would first have to reclaim the 200-day line at $69.70 and hold it on a daily close. After that, the broken $75 Fibonacci level would be the next obstacle, with the 50-day average at $79.86 above it. Each of those marks a spot where recent buyers have already been trapped or turned away.

The buyback engine keeps running at roughly $825M a year, but a whale dumped $109M in a single day and the volume that followed April’s rally has not come back. If $68.08 and $67 are tested while the RSI slips below 30, will buybacks alone be enough to hold the line?